How many rockets does it take to put two astronauts on the Moon? NASA’s own safety advisers think the answer for SpaceX’s Starship could be about 22. Elon Musk thinks that number is badly off, and he said so within hours.
At a public meeting of NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) on Thursday, October 22, 2026, panel member and former astronaut Charlie Precourt said the latest estimate for refuelling flights needed to support a Starship Moon landing was “around 22”. Musk replied on X that the figure was “way too high” and that the real number would be “more like 6 to 8”. The gap matters because the Starship lander is meant to carry the crew of Artemis IV, NASA’s planned 2028 Moon landing.
Quick Facts
- Who: NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel member Charlie Precourt, and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk
- What: A public disagreement over how many Starship launches a crewed Moon landing will need
- When: ASAP quarterly public meeting on October 22, 2026; Musk replied on X the same day
- Mission at stake: Artemis IV, the crewed lunar landing NASA is targeting for 2028
- Key numbers: Panel estimate “around 22” flights; Musk’s estimate 6 to 8; NASA’s 2023 figure was in the “high teens”
What the NASA Safety Panel Said About Starship
The ASAP is an independent group that advises NASA on safety. It meets every quarter and publishes a yearly report. At this week’s meeting, Precourt flagged the fuelling of the lunar lander as one of the biggest risks for Artemis IV.
According to Teslarati’s account of the meeting, he told the panel that NASA needs to keep watch on the “numerous required fuelings” for the lander, and that the last estimate he had seen was around 22 flights. He also described Artemis IV as a mission with “a large number of firsts”.
One thing is missing: a breakdown. Neither the panel nor NASA has published how the figure of 22 was worked out, so outsiders can’t yet check the maths.
Musk’s Reply: “Way Too High”
Ars Technica’s senior space editor Eric Berger posted Precourt’s remark on X. Musk answered him directly, calling the estimate way too high and putting the actual number at 6 to 8 launches.
This is not the first time Musk has pushed back on a launch count. In 2021, when a government document suggested a Starship landing might need 16 launches, he called that “extremely unlikely” and said eight tanker flights would be the most needed, according to Teslarati.
Berger added his own context in the thread: even if Starship were launching twice a week by the end of 2027, filling a fuel depot at the panel’s figure would take roughly three months, as reported by Teslarati.
Why a Starship Moon Landing Needs So Many Launches
Apollo was simple by comparison. One Saturn V rocket sent a fully fuelled lunar module to the Moon, as The Register points out. Starship works differently.
Think of it like a long road trip where the car can’t carry enough petrol from home. The Starship lander goes up to Earth orbit, and a string of “tanker” Starships launch one after another to top it up, possibly through a fuel depot. Only when it is full can it head for the Moon, land and come back up. Every tanker is a separate launch.
The hard part is the fuel itself. Starship burns super-cold liquid propellants that slowly boil away in space, and some is lost each time fuel moves from one ship to another. How much each tanker can actually deliver, and how fast SpaceX can turn ships around, decides whether the real number sits closer to Musk’s 6 or the panel’s 22.
SpaceX plans to do this refuelling with its upgraded V3 Starship. So far, The Register notes, Starship has made just one test flight to orbit, and large-scale ship-to-ship transfer of super-cold fuel has not yet been shown.
Artemis III, Artemis IV and Blue Origin’s Role
NASA’s Moon plans have shifted this year. Artemis III has been reshaped into a 2027 mission in low Earth orbit to test lunar technology from both SpaceX and Blue Origin, rather than a landing, according to The Register. The first crewed landing is now pencilled in for Artemis IV in 2028.
Blue Origin’s Blue Moon lander takes a different route. Its first mission does not rely on orbital refuelling, Teslarati reports. Precourt also praised the team of NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman for clearing obstacles for both companies.
The Panel’s Other Worry: Life After Falcon and Dragon
The Moon was not the only topic. The panel also raised concerns about access to low Earth orbit. SpaceX plans to phase out its Falcon rockets and Dragon capsules as Starship takes over, and The Register reports the panel warned this could complicate extending the International Space Station’s life and launching the vehicle that will one day bring the ISS down.
Without Dragon, Boeing’s Starliner would be the only US commercial ride for crews to the station. The panel now puts Starliner’s earliest next launch in mid-January 2027, with the schedule still under review. On the brighter side, the panel praised the Artemis II mission and Isaacman’s leadership.
What We Don’t Know Yet
- How the “around 22” figure was calculated, and whether it counts depot and lander launches as well as tankers.
- Whether NASA officially agrees with the panel’s number or with SpaceX’s.
- When SpaceX will first demonstrate a full-scale orbital fuel transfer.
- The panel’s written report, which is due early next year, should give more detail.
What This Means for Space Fans
If you’re following the race back to the Moon, the launch count is the number to watch. Fewer flights mean a faster, cheaper path to Artemis IV. More flights mean more chances for delays. Watch for Starship V3 test flights and any refuelling demo over the next year; those will show which estimate is closer to reality.
Our Take
Both sides have a point. Musk has a record of beating sceptics on reusable rockets, and also a record of optimistic timelines. A safety panel’s job is to assume things go wrong. The fastest way to settle this is not a post on X but a real fuel-transfer test in orbit, with numbers published for everyone to see.
FAQs
How many Starship launches are needed for a Moon landing?
There is no agreed number. A NASA safety panel member cited around 22 flights, Elon Musk says 6 to 8, and NASA officials said “high teens” in 2023.
What is NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel?
It is an independent body that advises NASA on safety risks in its programmes. It holds quarterly public meetings and releases an annual report.
Why does Starship need refuelling in orbit?
The Starship lander can’t reach the Moon and return on the fuel it has after launch, so tanker Starships top it up in Earth orbit first.
When will Artemis IV land on the Moon?
NASA is targeting 2028 for Artemis IV, the planned crewed landing. Artemis III is now a 2027 test mission in Earth orbit.
You can follow the panel’s meetings and reports on NASA’s ASAP website, and read Musk’s reply on X.
Based on reporting by The Register, Teslarati, Tesla North and SpaceNews.
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