IMD says monsoon progression stalls over Kerala as weak moisture flow and atmospheric conditions delay onset; ECMWF forecasts widespread rainfall activity across southern, eastern, and northeastern regions
Punjab Newsline | New Delhi
India, which is currently reeling under an intense heatwave across nearly 80–90% of its regions, may receive significant relief as pre-monsoon rains are expected between May 29 and June 5.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the onset of the southwest monsoon has not yet progressed into Kerala as expected. The monsoon’s arrival is officially declared after two consecutive days of at least 2.5 mm rainfall at 14 designated stations in Kerala. While an earlier forecast had suggested a May 26 arrival, weak moisture conditions have stalled its advancement.
Meteorologists also pointed to a cyclonic circulation over the south-central Arabian Sea, which has weakened cloud formation and further slowed monsoon development.
Meanwhile, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has released a 15-day forecast based on satellite, oceanic, and atmospheric data. The model indicates increased rainfall activity over the next eight days across South India, East India, Northeast India, and parts of the Bay of Bengal region.
Experts suggest that this pre-monsoon spell could temporarily ease rising temperatures across large parts of the country, even as uncertainty remains over the exact timing of the monsoon’s arrival in Kerala.
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