USMNT vs. Australia World Cup mega-preview: Predictions, odds, must-reads and more – The Athletic – The New York Times

Home Latest News USMNT vs. Australia World Cup mega-preview: Predictions, odds, must-reads and more – The Athletic – The New York Times
USMNT vs. Australia World Cup mega-preview: Predictions, odds, must-reads and more – The Athletic – The New York Times

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After a dream start to open the tournament, the United States is set for its second match at the 2026 World Cup, this time against Australia in Seattle on Friday, June 19.
The U.S. began with a statement win, 4-1 over Paraguay, last week to kick things off. It was the team’s best performance under head coach Mauricio Pochettino, considering the stage, stakes and implications, and arguably one of the best-ever by an American men’s team at a World Cup.
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The U.S. looks to keep that momentum rolling against Australia, but it won’t be easy — and it might have to be achieved without the services of injured star Christian Pulisic. It’s a top-of-the-table clash in Group D after Australia beat Turkey 2-0. The European side’s captain, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, dismissed the Socceroos before the game, claiming his side would dominate the game. The U.S. players aren’t making that mistake despite some outside voices injecting some bulletin-board fodder into the mix.
Whichever side wins this game will close in on winning the group, and thus a more favorable knockout round path. Here’s a closer look at the match.
Group D: United States (FIFA ranking 17) vs Australia (FIFA ranking 27)
Venue: Seattle Stadium (Lumen Field), Seattle, Wash.
Date: Friday, June 19
Kick off: 3 p.m. ET/12 p.m. PT
U.S. pathway: Qualified automatically as a host nation. Drawn from Pot 1.
Australia pathway: Australia finished second behind Japan in the third round of Asia qualifying, with a record of five wins, four draws and one defeat. Drawn from Pot 2.
Paul Tenorio: U.S. 2, Australia 1 – I think the Americans keep things rolling, and something in my gut tells me they’ll do it without Christian Pulisic. This isn’t reporting! Just a hunch.
Henry Bushnell: U.S. 2, Australia 1 — This game will be tighter than the opener. Physically, Australia is better than Paraguay; tactically, I think the Aussies will be smarter. But they’re just not as good at soccer as the U.S. is.
Tom Bogert: U.S. 2, Australia 0 – Ultimately, the U.S. is on a roll and will be too much for a valiant Australian performance. They unlocked something with the midfield fluidity in the last few games. That is the key to the game.
After the dominant performance against Paraguay, it’s not surprising the U.S. is a solid favorite against Australia. The Americans are -165 to get a win on DraftKings and BetMGM and -170 on FanDuel.
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A draw (between +310 and +350) is viewed as more likely than an Australia win. The Socceroos are around 4-to-1 to win.
That means the odds are saying the U.S. has a roughly 60 percent chance to win and around an 80 percent chance to get at least a point from this match.
The Athletic’s projection tool is currently giving the U.S. a 97 percent chance of advancing from the group and a 63 percent chance of winning it. A win would assure the Americans advance and give them an 84 percent chance of winning Group D.
A draw drops those chances to 56 percent and a loss to 4 percent. Even with a loss, the model gives the U.S. an 86 percent chance of advancing.
The cohosts recreate a similar performance to the one against Paraguay. It cannot be understated how perfect the first 45 minutes were, in particular.
The U.S. raced out to a 3-0 lead and completely suffocated its opponents. The game was won in the midfield, as the trio of Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie and Malik Tillman overwhelmed the Paraguay engine room, allowing more space for Pulisic and Folarin Balogun to do damage.
“They dominated tactically, technically and physically,” Paraguay head coach Gustavo Alfaro said after his team’s loss to the U.S. “They create a pentagon in midfield … they have a solution to every problem.”
When in the most advantageous positions, Pulisic and Balogun did indeed make their opponents pay. The counterpress was electric. Even when the U.S. lost possession, Paraguay couldn’t keep the ball.
The combo of overloading the midfield, keeping possession, counterpressing swiftly and making chances count is where this game is won.
Pulisic’s status will be important, and the U.S. would surely rather he’s available to start, but even if he isn’t, the attacking group is deep. Any one of Gio Reyna, Tim Weah or Alejandro Zendejas would be a fine replacement.
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Australia is a quality opponent. It will not be easy to play against and showed against Turkey how dangerous it can be in transition with Nestory Irankunda and Connor Metcalfe, plus the group is strong on set pieces, with 6-foot-6 center back Harry Souttar literally looming large.
That’s a dangerous mix. Even if Australia just defends better than Paraguay, doesn’t get picked apart and is more comfortable defending in their own penalty box, the U.S. will struggle. That plus a set piece could easily be a draw.
Goalkeeping is a strength for Australia, even if it came in the form of a surprise. Picked over captain Maty Ryan, Patrick Beach had a man-of-the-match performance in his World Cup debut, making eight saves en route to a clean sheet.
“He came out today, and he’s shown the world what he can do,” Irankunda said. “He made a lot of important saves, and if it wasn’t for him, the score could have been different. But he saved us.”

Australia is likely to sit deep like Paraguay, but will defend better than the South American opponents. More importantly, the Aussies have proven they’re more dangerous in transition. Where the U.S. turns over the ball is important. If it’s a ball forward or a shot that goes out for a goal kick, the U.S. can in turn win possession in dangerous spots.
If the U.S. loses the ball in bad ways — slow sideways passes, a big switch when runners go forward, a bad cross into the goalkeeper’s hands — then Australia will be extremely dangerous. If Australia can string together more passes to break the press, the tenor of the game changes.
Australian center backs will be a handful both in defending U.S. crosses and on attacking set pieces. They can put the Americans back on their heels.
Physicality will play a key role in this game. Pochettino challenged his team to fight back in the U.S.’s 2-1 friendly over Australia in the fall. If the Americans get bullied out of the game, Australia will have the edge.
United States (4-2-3-1): Freese; Freeman, Richards, Ream, A. Robinson; Adams, Tillman; Dest, McKennie, Reyna; Balogun
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Australia (5-4-1): Beach; Italiano, Circati, Souttar, Burgess, Bos; Metcalfe, O’Neill, Okon-Engstler, Irankunda; Toure
The referee will be Felix Zwayer, a 45-year-old German who will be assisted by countrymen Robert Kempter and Christian Dietz, with Mexican pair Katia Garcia (fourth official) and Sandra Ramirez (reserve assistant) also part of the crew. Zwayer — who served a six-month ban for involvement in match-fixing in 2005 — was the only German match referee called up by FIFA for this World Cup.
USMNT vs. Australia in Seattle: June 19, 3 p.m. ET on Fox (English) and Telemundo, Peacock (Spanish)
USMNT vs. Turkey in Los Angeles: June 25, 10 p.m. ET on Fox (English) and Telemundo, Peacock (Spanish)
A handful of must-reads from The Athletic staff.
Inside the mind and methods of Mauricio Pochettino
The USMNT coach sat down exclusively with The Athletic in between games to discuss his approach to managing this team.
The one-word analysis from a U.S. pundit that set off an international incident
CBS Sports’ Mike Grella didn’t think much of his reaction to the World Cup draw. Instead, it sparked six months of bulletin board material and trash talk.
‘We’re American, we don’t take s—’: Mauricio Pochettino’s message to USA team in last Australia game
Seb Berhalter says the coach has instilled an uncompromising mentality within the squad, emphasizing an American identity built on resilience — and refusing to be intimidated by opponents.
If Christian Pulisic is out vs. Australia, it’s a problem for USMNT. Who can solve it?
The star player has been missing team training this week with a niggling injury — hers’s what happens if he is not ready to play the game.
How USMNT can win World Cup group with game to spare – and why tiebreak rules raise stakes vs. Australia
Big things are on the horizon for USMNT if they beat Australia and then get some help from Paraguay.
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What does winning big in a World Cup opener mean? USMNT’s historical comps, cautionary tales
A great start, but perspective is needed as opening day heroics does not guarantee this summer is considered a success story.
A ‘mission to wreck’: What USMNT can expect from Australia at the World Cup
This isn’t your older sibling’s Australia. Here’s how Tony Popovic has changed the mentality and the makeup of the Socceroos.
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