Smarter Insights for a Fast-Moving Digital World
Software developers aged 22 to 25 saw employment fall nearly 20% from their late 2022 peak by July 2025, according to Stanford Digital Economy Lab research using ADP payroll data. That single cohort decline reframes the entire narrative around tech layoffs, which most observers describe as a broad correction across all engineering levels.
The data points compiled below cover aggregate tech layoff totals from Layoffs.fyi, company-level cuts at Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Salesforce, seniority-level employment shifts from Stanford and Indeed Hiring Lab, AI-automation drivers cited by chief executives on the record, and the BLS Occupational Outlook projections for software developers through 2034. Readers tracking the broader workforce picture can also review our AI job loss data for cross-occupation context.
Source: Layoffs.fyi, TrueUp Layoffs Tracker, Crunchbase News
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Source: Microsoft GeekWire reporting, Amazon CEO statement, Meta internal memo, Salesforce earnings call, CNN April 2026 report
Stanford Digital Economy Lab research found that early-career workers aged 22 to 25 in AI-exposed occupations experienced a 13% relative decline in employment since late 2022. Among 22-to-25-year-old software developers specifically, employment fell nearly 20% from its late 2022 peak by July 2025.
Source: Stanford Digital Economy Lab “Canaries in the Coal Mine” working paper, Indeed Hiring Lab February 2025 report
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella stated in early 2025 that “maybe 20-30% of the code” in some Microsoft coding projects is now generated by AI, a public acknowledgment that came months before the company’s May 2025 software-engineering-focused layoff round. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff, in a September 2, 2025, CNBC interview confirming the support division cuts, said directly that “I need less heads.”
Source: CNBC Salesforce interview, GeekWire Microsoft reporting, Amazon corporate statements
By the numbers: Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff confirmed in a 2025 CNBC interview that the company’s support headcount fell from 9,000 to about 5,000 as AI-powered tools handled routine conversations, and Salesforce hired zero new engineers in fiscal year 2026. The shift represents the clearest CEO-level admission of AI substitution for engineering roles to date.
Indeed Hiring Lab’s data feed for software development postings showed openings down 36.4% versus the February 1, 2020, pre-pandemic baseline as of October 10, 2025. The same series posted a 6.7% year-over-year decline, marking software development as one of the hardest-hit occupational categories on the platform.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Outlook Handbook reports that software developers, quality assurance analysts, and testers held about 1.7 million jobs in 2024, with overall employment in the combined category projected to grow 15% from 2024 to 2034. For comparison, computer programmer roles, tracked separately, are projected to decline 6% over the same window.
BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics data for May 2024 placed the median annual wage at $133,080, with the bottom 10% earning under $79,850 and the top 10% earning above $211,450. AI-specialist roles command additional premiums on top of this baseline, with multi-skill AI engineers reaching the strongest pay differentials.
Key finding: US Bureau of Labor Statistics May 2024 OEWS data placed software developer median annual wage at $133,080, with the top 10% clearing $211,450. AI-specialist roles, per Acceler8 Talent’s 2025 survey, average about $206,000 base, and multi-AI-skill workers see roughly 43% salary premiums over non-AI peers.
The 2025 Stack Overflow Developer Survey collected responses from over 49,000 developers across 177 countries. In the United States, 74.8% of respondents reported full-time employment, with the remainder split between freelancers, students, retirees, the unemployed, and respondents who declined to answer.
Source: Crunchbase News role analysis, Fortune coverage of company-level rounds, individual company memos
Layoffs.fyi tracked about 122,549 total tech layoffs in 2025 across 257 companies. Software engineers represented a meaningful share, especially in Microsoft’s May 2025 round, but most 2025 cuts hit non-technical roles such as HR, communications, recruiting, and customer support, per Crunchbase News role-level analysis.
AI is a partial driver, not the sole cause. Analyst rollups cited by CNBC attribute about 25% of March 2026 cuts to AI and automation, with roughly 75% tracing to cost discipline and unit restructuring. Microsoft, Salesforce, and Amazon have publicly tied portions of their 2025 cuts to AI productivity gains.
Microsoft cut over 15,000 roles across two 2025 rounds, with the May round focused on software engineering. Amazon eliminated 14,000 corporate positions, roughly 5% of its white-collar workforce. Meta announced a 5% workforce reduction affecting about 3,600 employees, with U.S. workers notified in February 2025. Salesforce reduced its support division from 9,000 to about 5,000 rather than cutting engineers directly.
Junior software engineers face significantly more pressure. Stanford research showed software developer employment for ages 22 to 25 fell nearly 20% from the late 2022 peak by July 2025, while workers aged 30 and over in the same AI-exposed category saw employment rise 6% to 12%. Indeed Hiring Lab found junior tech titles down 34% versus senior titles down 19%.
US Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 15% employment growth for software developers, QA analysts, and testers from 2024 to 2034, with about 129,200 annual openings. Median pay sits at $133,080, with AI-skilled engineers commanding around 28% premiums and multi-AI-skill professionals near 43% above baseline.
Software developers aged 22 to 25 absorbed a roughly 20% employment decline from their late 2022 peak by mid-2025, while workers aged 30 and over in the same AI-exposed category saw employment grow 6% to 12%, per Stanford Digital Economy Lab analysis. That single asymmetry pulls the layoff narrative away from “general engineering collapse” toward a tighter story: cuts concentrated at the junior level and across management layers, with mid-career and senior engineers holding ground or even gaining share where AI specialization is involved.
The companies driving the headline numbers, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Salesforce, each had their own stated reasons, ranging from “culture” to performance management to explicit AI substitution. The data points beneath those statements are consistent: software development job postings remain 36.4% below February 2020 levels per Indeed Hiring Lab, and hiring has frozen at firms like Salesforce. Meanwhile, the AI-skill premium has widened to 43% for engineers with multiple AI specialisations, per Acceler8 Talent data. Mid-career engineers with AI fluency benefit most from the divergence, while early-career entrants face the steepest entry barrier in over a decade.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics still projects 15% software developer employment growth through 2034. If the historical pattern holds, the recovery will favor specialists, redeployers, and engineers who pair traditional software craft with AI tooling fluency.
This article has been reviewed and fact-checked by Robert A. Lee. SQ Magazine follows strict Publishing Principles and a documented Fact-Check Policy to ensure accuracy, transparency, and editorial independence across all content. Our statistics are verified using a documented Research Process.
Senior Tech Writer
Disclaimer: The content published on SQ Magazine is for informational and educational purposes only. Please verify details independently before making any important decisions based on our content.
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Smarter Insights for a Fast-Moving Digital World
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