India’s total fertility rate has declined to 1.9 births per woman, falling below the replacement level of 2.1 for the first time in the country’s history. This trend is observed across most states, with only a few, such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, remaining above the replacement threshold.
Delhi’s fertility rate is now 1.2, which is lower than that of Finland. India’s population continues to grow due to population momentum, but the rate of growth is expected to slow in the coming years.
According to Deccan Herald, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk highlighted India’s declining birth rate, noting that the country’s fertility rate has dropped from 2.3 to 1.9 in just a decade. Musk referenced data indicating that among the most educated segments of the population, the birth rate fell below replacement levels many years ago.
As reported by The Indian Express, the replacement level is defined as the number of children a woman needs to have, on average, for a population to remain stable from one generation to the next, typically set at 2.1.
The decline in fertility is not uniform across India, with northern states such as Bihar maintaining higher rates, while southern and urban regions have experienced more rapid declines.
Recent coverage confirmed that the United Nations Population Fund’s 2025 State of World Population Report also recorded India’s total fertility rate at 1.9 births per woman.
The report emphasised that, despite the decline, India’s population remains above 1.46 billion, having surpassed China in 2023 to become the world’s most populous nation.
India’s demographic shift is expected to have long-term effects on the workforce, economy, and social structure as analysis showed.
Experts attribute the ongoing population growth to the large number of young people who continue to have children, a phenomenon known as population momentum.
“India’s birth rate has fallen below replacement. Among those most educated, India’s birth rate fell below replacement many years ago,” Elon Musk stated on X, as cited by multiple sources.
Regional disparities remain significant, with cities like Delhi and states such as Tamil Nadu recording some of the lowest fertility rates in the country. The gap between more developed and less developed regions is evident in these trends according to demographic data.
Health and social indicators continue to influence fertility trends. Maternal mortality and gender discrimination remain high in certain areas, and early marriage and pregnancy contribute to excessive maternal deaths among women under the age of 24 as reporting indicated.
While the overall fertility rate has declined, experts note that the effects of this demographic change will become more pronounced over time, potentially leading to an ageing population and shifts in economic and social policies as details emerged.
Note: This article is produced using AI-assisted tools and is based on publicly available information. It has been reviewed by The Quint’s editorial team before publishing.
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