42% Rainfall Deficit Recorded Across the Country; IMD Expects Monsoon to Revive from First Week of July
Punjab Newsline | New Delhi
India is on track to witness one of its driest Junes in nearly a century, with the active El Niño conditions over the Pacific Ocean significantly affecting this year’s southwest monsoon. According to weather data, this is only the third time since 1927 that June is likely to end with such a severe rainfall deficit.
With only a few hours left before the month concludes, the country has recorded a 42% rainfall shortfall. India has received 92.2 mm of rainfall so far in June against the normal average of 157.7 mm. Even if widespread showers occur on the final day of the month, total rainfall is expected to reach only around 100 mm, still well below normal.
Meteorological records show that June has been drier only twice in the last 100 years—2009, when rainfall stood at 87.5 mm, and 2014, when it reached 92.1 mm. Both years were also associated with weak monsoon conditions.
Despite the disappointing start, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected a significant improvement in rainfall from the first week of July, especially across Central India, where the monsoon deficit has been the highest so far. Good rainfall is also expected in several other parts of the country.
Region-wise rainfall data highlights the severity of the deficit. Central India has recorded the steepest shortfall at 54%, followed by East and Northeast India (41%), Northwest India (30%), and South India (28%). The widespread shortage suggests that El Niño has begun to influence India’s monsoon season.
According to the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), warming sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean have strengthened El Niño to a moderate intensity, with the phenomenon expected to intensify further in the coming months.
El Niño is a climate pattern that warms the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, altering global weather systems. It typically weakens the Indian monsoon by disrupting wind patterns and reducing moisture flow. This year, although the southwest monsoon reached Kerala on June 4, its progress has remained sluggish, with daily rainfall exceeding normal levels on only one day throughout June.
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