The Strategic Monitor 2025–2030 by the Clingendael Institute outlines a world where geopolitical friction, technological rivalry, and strategic uncertainty are the new normal. Within this context, the report introduces the concept of geopolitical changement and advocates for a different kind of strategic thinking: from prediction to proposition. What does this mean for the Netherlands – and for knowledge institutions like TU Delft? A conversation with lead author Koen Aartsma about the strategic choices this geopolitical reality demands of us.
By Lara Meijer • May 21, 2025
You speak of a ‘geopolitical changement’. What do you mean by this, and why is the concept important?
“We must prepare for what we call a geopolitical changement – a term borrowed from theatre, meaning a scene change. The geopolitical stage can transform entirely from one day to the next. Think of a pandemic, a technological breakthrough, or an election result. These kinds of changes are no longer exceptions – they are the new normal.
“For a knowledge institution like TU Delft, this means being alert to emerging disruptive technologies that accelerate such change. In the past, you pulled a string and the set changed. Today, a single update or breakthrough can place you in an entirely new playing field.”
Foresight plays a role in this. Why is it indispensable today?
“In the Netherlands, we often plan based on what we consider most likely. But today’s world demands something else. You must be able to deal with uncertainty – and that means thinking in terms of a range of conceivable outcomes. Foresight doesn’t help you predict the future, but it does help you prepare for multiple scenarios.”
Innovation touches everything – and whoever controls the technology gains an advantage across multiple domains. That requires a strategic approach to innovation
The report states that technology is increasingly being used as a tool of power. What does this mean for how we view innovation?
“Innovation has never been purely economic – it has always played a role on the military, economic and geopolitical stage. Think of the internet or satellite technology. What is changing is the speed at which innovations spread and the interconnection between domains. We must move away from the reflex of seeing economy, defence, and technology as separate. Innovation touches everything – and whoever controls the technology gains an advantage across multiple domains. That requires a strategic approach to innovation – including at TU Delft.”
“The developments outlined in the Strategic Monitor align closely with what we are increasingly observing within TU Delft, and with the effects of those developments – for instance, in the area of knowledge security. The world is complex and difficult to predict, and that calls for a different perspective. Koen Aartsma’s statement that knowledge institutions and businesses must actively contribute to how we remain resilient as a society – and that universities are not spectators but part of the chain – fits well with TU Delft’s strategic focus.
“For us, this means that in addition to technological innovation, we must also consider strategic choices. Foresight is a valuable tool for policymakers, administrators and researchers to test how resilient we are as an organisation in light of future scenarios – so that we are better prepared for the changes that lie ahead.”
Read more about TU Delft Foresight at www.tudelft.nl/foresight
The power of major tech companies is growing. What does that mean for power dynamics?
“We are used to thinking of geopolitics as something between states. But companies now have resources and capabilities once reserved for states – and they are actively choosing to engage in geopolitical issues. That’s why we advocate for a whole-of-society approach: geopolitics should not be left to governments alone. Knowledge institutions, companies, and civil society must also contribute to how we remain resilient as a society. Universities are not spectators in this – they are part of the chain.”
What vulnerabilities do you currently see as most urgent?
“We are dependent in many areas – from energy to defence, from technology to access to critical raw materials. Take our cloud infrastructure – a large part of government data is stored with American companies. That’s not hypothetical; it’s geopolitically relevant.
“Access to resources like lithium is becoming strategically more important. We need to build partnerships – including beyond the usual suspects. Consider countries like Serbia: politically complex, but rich in resources. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket – that must be the guiding principle.”
What does this mean for the Netherlands’ international strategic policy?
“We need to think about a strategic positioning that doesn’t leave us fully dependent on one ally or region. Of course, we cooperate with the US and NATO partners, but we also need to build relations with other countries – including the Global South. And within Europe, we must strengthen our industrial base. That’s no longer a dirty word. Certainly not in times like these.”
The report also highlights the importance of a ‘battle of narratives’. Why is that significant?
“Much of today’s conflict doesn’t involve tanks, but plays out in the information domain. Sowing doubt is sometimes enough – and open societies are especially vulnerable to this. Universities have a responsibility to counter that with transparency: showing how knowledge is produced, and being open about assumptions and methods. Don’t retreat – be visible. That requires leadership, even when it attracts criticism. No hindsight thinking, but foresight. After all, you stock up on road salt before winter.”
In a world where everything is geopolitical – including technology – universities must ask themselves: what do we want to protect, and with whom do we want to collaborate?
What do you see as the most important role for universities like TU Delft?
“There is a clear threefold task: first, respond to what is urgent now, and dare to act swiftly. Second, maintain a forward-looking vision. And third, play a connecting role between government, industry, and science. TU Delft can be a crucial player in this – not only as a developer of technology, but as a partner in strategic thinking. In a world where everything is geopolitical – including technology – universities must ask themselves: what do we want to protect, and with whom do we want to collaborate?”
What would you like to pass on to students, researchers and university leaders?
“Dare to think beyond the beaten path. Work out that one scenario that makes you uncomfortable. Involve people who think differently. And create a culture in which making mistakes is allowed, and course correction is possible. Especially in a world that is changing so rapidly, the answer is not to become risk-averse – but strategically alert.”
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