Unlike the previous years, when I wrote editorials in June on the devastating effect of monsoons, this year, the focus shifts to something far more unsettling: lack of monsoon progress. The skies are silent. In that silence, I hear the alarm bells of a climate system that has turned against us in a way we never expected.
India’s southwest monsoon has hit a pause. Between June 1 and June 17, 2026, the country recorded a catastrophic rainfall deficit. The monsoon made a slightly delayed onset over Kerala on June 4 and showed signs of progress in the first week and by June 15 its progress has since slowed to a crawl.
This is not just delayed, it is a standstill. As per Down to Earth, the Delhi-based think tank, the Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon has been largely stalled since June 8, while moisture-bearing winds reach the country but fail to produce rain due to weak convection and poor wind convergence.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has officially flagged a below-normal monsoon for 2026, with rainfall predicted at 92% of the long-term average (LTA). Rainfall below 96% of LTA is below normal, and the IMD has set the chance of a deficient season at 35% and a below-normal one at 31%.
All five major factors that can suppress monsoon rainfall are active simultaneously this year affecting the pattern and progress.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared the onset of El Niño in its June 11, 2026 update. This is not a mild warning, but issued an advisory putting 82 probability of El Niño developing during May-July. It also projected a 96% likelihood of it persisting through winter 2026-27.
During this summer, and as recently as two days ago, I observed a notable change when spending time near the beach: rather than the typical cool breeze, the wind I experienced was distinctly warmer in nature.
The current situation mirrors and compounds the historical disasters:
El Niño events have historically resulted in global famine, year without a winter, droughts, heavy rains/flooding etc. There have been 16 El Niño events. Twelve drastically impacted India; 5 led to extreme droughts in the country. Notable deficit years: 1902 (-24%), 1965 (−19%), 1972 (−22%), 2002 (−24%), 2004 and 2009 (−18%), 2015 (9%). The country has witnessed drier; deficit monsoon and lately more extreme daily rainfall events.
Here is what I find most disturbing, the climate does not simply reset after a drought. Each drought leaves a permanent scar on our monsoon system, and the pattern of change is becoming increasingly volatile.
However, El Niño does not always cause deficit monsoon, 1997 delivered +2% above normal. A 2025 Science study found El Niño simultaneously reduces total summer rainfall but intensifies extreme daily rainfall.
The effect of El Nina slid India into what researchers call a 50-year drying period during which the monsoon season brought relatively less rainfall. This drying phase lasted through the 80s, 90s, and early 2000s decades.
Data shows, starting from 2002, the daily rainfall average in northern central India increased by 1.34 mm per decade. This is the critical finding from MIT researchers: the Indian summer monsoon has strengthened in the last 15 years over north central India.
The monsoon seasons of 2018 and 2019 exemplified the post-2015 pattern– dry spells were broken by extremely heavy rainfall spells, creating a flood and drought cycle in many regions.
Based on the historical trajectory, if 2026 follows the pattern of previous droughts, the predictions are;
Independent weather forecasters puts June’s rainfall deficiency could widen to 40-45% if conditions did not improve. A prolonged lull could delay Kharif crop sowing, increase food prices, deplete reservoir levels, and threaten rain-fed agriculture.
El Niño is not just a weather pattern; it is a climate amplifier. Around 70% of all El Niño years since 1980 have corresponded with poor monsoons, showing that the link between the Pacific condition and India’s June-Sept rains is one of the strongest among global weather phenomena.
The science has been screaming this warning for half a century. The 1982-83 taught us droughts could be catastrophic. The 2002 season showed us the inadequacies of our forecasting systems. The 2015-16 revealed that we now face floods and droughts in the same season. And, now in 2026, with NOAA’s prediction of El Niño to become very strong, we are doing… what exactly?
We are watching. We are waiting. We are writing editorials.
The silence of the monsoon this year is the sound of a system that has broken beyond repair. And, the question we must answer is whether we have the courage to build a country that can survive if the monsoon don’t return. Because next year, the silence might be longer. And after that, it might never end.
We are trapped in a climate whiplash where the only constant is unpredictability.
This is not just about weather, but about you and me, our survival and the economy of our country.
ESG News.earth is India’s first Sustainability & ESG news portal.
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