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NEW YORK, June 20, 2026, 15:02 EDT
Coherent Corp. finished the holiday-shortened week up, as buyers stuck with the stock on hopes for AI data center growth. A new Reuters piece about China looking at indium exports put supply risk back in the spotlight.
Saxonburg, Pennsylvania’s photonics firm ended regular Thursday trading up 2.8% at $389.57. With U.S. markets shut Friday for Juneteenth and closed over the weekend, next real trading comes Monday.
Coherent is in focus today. The company works in a tight corner of the AI supply chain, moving data between chips and systems with light—a business called photonics. Indium phosphide, or InP, drives a lot of those high-speed optical links. Washington is stepping in to help pay for more U.S. output now.
Coherent said Tuesday it has a letter of intent for up to $50 million in CHIPS Act funding for an expansion at its 6-inch InP facility in Sherman, Texas. The company said it would double the site’s manufacturing space, push wafer output up fourfold, and add over 1,000 jobs, including 550-plus roles in advanced manufacturing, engineering and technical work.
Trading in Coherent was jagged this week. Shares jumped 7.5% Monday, dropped the same amount Tuesday, edged lower again Wednesday, and then rebounded Thursday. From last Wednesday’s close at $385.03 to $389.57 at Thursday’s finish, the move was small. That’s notable after a near double in the stock this year, with less margin for a slip.
Earnings stayed solid. Coherent posted fiscal third-quarter revenue of $1.81 billion, a 21% jump from last year, and non-GAAP earnings of $1.41 per share. Non-GAAP is an adjusted profit figure that leaves out certain items management sees as outside normal business. CEO Jim Anderson said AI data-center infrastructure is scaling, and Coherent is “rapidly expanding capacity to meet demand.” Coherent Inc
Coherent laid out guidance that could appeal to bulls. The company projected fiscal Q4 revenue at $1.91 billion to $2.05 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $1.52 to $1.72. CFO Sherri Luther said Coherent has “strong visibility into ongoing robust demand.” Coherent Inc
Competition is still heavy. Lumentum has mostly moved in line with Coherent, with both seen as Nvidia-backed optical suppliers. Marvell’s entry in photonics keeps pressure on the entire space. JPMorgan analysts, quoted by Investopedia, said a series of issues had weighed on both Coherent and Lumentum after their recent slide, but the analysts still rate both overweight. That’s a JPMorgan view, not a consensus or market fact.
Policy risk was on display this week. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang joined Anderson at the Sherman facility and said, “AI factories are the infrastructure of the new industrial revolution.” Coherent shareholders are watching more than just the $50 million in play; the key is that both Nvidia and the U.S. government want to bring a limited optics supply chain back to the U.S. AP News
The risk on the downside is easy to spot. Reuters said Friday that China, which accounts for almost 70% of global indium output, is boosting checks on exports, though so far there’s no sign of any blocked shipments. A week ago, Reuters quoted Konrad Wang at SemiAnalysis calling InP a key supply chain choke for AI data center projects, while Albright Stonebridge’s Paul Triolo said Beijing is rolling out a more detailed “materials chokepoint” playbook. Reuters
Looking to the week, traders will watch if Coherent hangs onto Thursday’s bounce, and if new China supply headlines put pressure on optics stocks again. Investors are also watching whether the Sherman expansion is still seen as added capacity or starts to look like a supply crunch. The stock’s direction could come down to wafer production, permits, and margins — not just another AI pitch.
Michał Rogucki is a senior markets reporter at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, technology and macroeconomic developments. A graduate of Humboldt University of Berlin, he previously worked in investment research and market analysis before transitioning to financial journalism. He covers the trends and events that matter most to investors worldwide.
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