More than 158 million Brazilians are being asked to make the same choice today, and the final polls suggest they are split almost exactly down the middle.
Brazil is holding its presidential runoff on Sunday, October 25, 2026. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, of the left-wing Workers’ Party is seeking a fourth term. He faces Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, of the right-wing Liberal Party and eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Flávio finished first in the October 4 first round, and the last surveys before today’s vote show the two men within a couple of points of each other.
Quick Facts
- Who: Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party) vs Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party)
- What: Second-round vote for Brazil’s president
- When: Sunday, October 25, 8 am to 5 pm Brasília time
- Where: Across Brazil, plus voters registered in 134 other countries
- First round: Flávio 47.03%, Lula 45.16%
- Results: The electoral court starts publishing the count at 20:00 UTC, roughly 1:30 am IST on Monday
Brazil Runoff Polls: A Statistical Tie
Reuters reported on Saturday that a series of final polls showed the two candidates about even. Most recent surveys give Flávio a narrow edge, but many of those leads sit inside the margin of error.
According to a poll tracker run by The Rio Times, Datafolha’s final survey put Flávio at 51% of valid votes to Lula’s 49%. Quaest showed the same 51-49 split, while Futura had it at 50.1 to 49.9. In mid-October, Al Jazeera reported CNT/MDA, Quaest and Datafolha all showing the senator a point or two ahead, again within a 2-point margin of error.
Treat those numbers with care. Pollsters already missed once this year: Datafolha’s last first-round survey had Lula ahead by three points, and the actual count put Flávio in front. In a race this tight, turnout on the day could decide everything.
How the First Round Went
On October 4, Flávio Bolsonaro took 56,104,503 votes (47.03%) against Lula’s 53,879,538 (45.16%). That gap of about 2.2 million votes surprised many observers, since pre-election surveys had Lula leading. Because no one crossed 50%, the top two went to today’s runoff.
Analysts quoted by Reuters at the time said part of Flávio’s support looked like protest votes against Lula rather than votes for the senator himself. Abstention in the first round was 21.08%, the highest first-round figure since 1998, according to The Rio Times. That matters, because voting in Brazil is compulsory for literate citizens aged 18 to 70, though the fine for skipping is small.
Lula vs Flavio Bolsonaro: Where They Stand
The two campaigns offer very different plans, and the debate has centred on crime, the cost of living and Brazil’s ties with the United States and China.
- Taxes and spending: Lula proposes exempting monthly salaries up to R$5,000 from income tax, paid for by taxing the very rich. Flávio proposes spending cuts, at least ten fewer ministries and more privatisation.
- Crime: Flávio wants to lower the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16 and label major gangs as narco-terrorist groups. Lula proposes a new Public Security ministry.
- Foreign policy: Lula stresses sovereignty and deeper BRICS and Mercosur ties. Flávio has promised to repair relations with Washington.
- Environment: Lula targets zero deforestation by 2030. Flávio targets an end to illegal deforestation by 2029.
- Welfare: Both say they will keep the Bolsa Família cash-transfer programme.
The Bolsonaro Name on the Ballot
Jair Bolsonaro, who was president from 2019 to 2022, cannot run himself. Brazil’s Supreme Court convicted him over a plot to overturn the 2022 election he lost to Lula, and he is serving a sentence of more than 27 years under house arrest. He denies wrongdoing. An electoral court ruling also bars him from office until 2030.
Flávio, a senator for Rio de Janeiro since 2019, has promised to pardon his father if elected. Legal experts cited by The Rio Times say a pardon would not restore Jair’s eligibility. NBC News, citing Reuters, reported that Flávio has been investigated by federal police over money laundering linked to the collapsed Banco Master. He denies wrongdoing.
US President Donald Trump has not formally endorsed anyone, but he hosted Flávio at the White House and praised him in public, NBC reported.
Why the Brazil Election Matters to India
Brazil and India sit together in BRICS and the G20, and both are large developing economies that often work together on trade and climate talks. Lula has made BRICS a pillar of his foreign policy. Flávio has said Brazil should deal with China and other partners on its own interests while moving closer to the US.
So whoever wins, New Delhi will be watching how Brazil’s tone inside BRICS changes. Global markets will also react, since Brazil is a major exporter of soybeans, iron ore, oil and other commodities.
What We Don’t Know Yet
- Who has won. This article was published on voting day, before any results were released.
- Whether turnout will rise or fall after the record first-round abstention.
- How the loser and their supporters will respond to the result.
How to Follow Brazil Election Results
Brazil votes on electronic machines, so the count usually moves fast. In the 2022 runoff, the winner was clear about three hours after polls closed. The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) publishes live numbers on its official results portal. For readers in India, that means the picture should start to become clear in the early hours of Monday morning.
One tip: early partial counts can swing, because different states report at different speeds. Wait for the TSE’s final declaration before trusting any “winner” post on social media.
The Bigger Picture
This runoff is a rematch of sorts: Lula against the Bolsonaro family, four years after the bitterly fought 2022 race. The new president takes office on January 5, 2027, for a four-year term, alongside a Congress elected on October 4. Six states, including Amazonas and the Federal District, are also holding governor runoffs today.
FAQs
When will the Brazil runoff results be announced?
The TSE begins publishing results after polls close at 5 pm Brasília time (20:00 UTC). In 2022, the winner was clear within about three hours.
Who won the first round of Brazil’s 2026 election?
Flávio Bolsonaro came first with 47.03%, ahead of Lula on 45.16%. Neither passed 50%, so the race went to a runoff.
Is Flavio Bolsonaro the son of Jair Bolsonaro?
Yes. He is the former president’s eldest son and has been a senator for Rio de Janeiro since 2019.
Why can’t Jair Bolsonaro run?
An electoral court barred him from office until 2030, and he is under house arrest serving a sentence over a plot to overturn the 2022 election, which he denies.
When does Brazil’s new president take office?
The winner is sworn in on January 5, 2027, for a four-year term.
Based on reporting by Reuters, The Rio Times, NBC News and Al Jazeera.
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