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Just as the oil market began to feel at ease with the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, Iran issued a reminder of who remains in charge. On Thursday, Iran’s joint military command declared that any oil tanker navigating the Strait of Hormuz must adhere to routes sanctioned by Tehran or risk an immediate and forceful response. The statement, aired by Iranian state television, further warned that any U.S. intervention in the waterway would provoke a rapid and decisive reaction.
This warning followed a day after U.S. and Iranian negotiators convened in Qatar for another session of discussions aimed at converting last month’s interim agreement into a comprehensive peace deal. Those talks reportedly advanced, but the next round is not anticipated until after funeral ceremonies for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei conclude next week.
The latest threat also dampens the increasingly popular notion that the Strait of Hormuz is returning to normal operations. While tanker traffic has rebounded from the near halt experienced during the conflict’s peak, it remains significantly below pre-war levels. According to the Associated Press, 258 vessels passed through the strait last week, up from 138 the prior week, while traffic this week has stabilized at roughly 30 to 60 crossings per day—still far from the approximately 130 daily transits recorded before the war.
More critically, Iran is not retreating from its stance that it governs navigation through the world’s most vital oil chokepoint. The interim agreement permits ships to transit toll-free for 60 days, but Tehran continues to assert its authority to set routes now and impose transit fees once the temporary arrangement ends. Washington and Gulf Arab states completely reject that interpretation.
This unresolved dispute matters because oil traders have spent the past week factoring in a swift return of Gulf exports. Brent crude has edged back toward pre-war levels as stranded cargoes finally depart the Persian Gulf and expectations of oversupply reemerge.
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