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Topic:Unrest, Conflict and War
Mon 8 Jun 2026 at 6:35am
A streak of light illuminates the sky during an Iranian missile attack on Israel, as seen from Ashkelon. (Reuters: Amir Cohen)
Hello, ABC Middle East correspondent Matthew Doran in Jerusalem here.
It's now 100 days since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, and the regime in Tehran retaliated across the region, plunging the Middle East into chaos.
This would be the first Iranian attack on Israel since the ceasefire was announced in early April. The Israeli military has ordered schools across the country to be closed as a safety precaution, and its next steps will be crucial.
The White House has said that Mr Trump has been briefed on this escalation. Fox News reported Mr Trump told a reporter that his message to Iran was to get back to the negotiating table and make a deal, while Axios is reporting the president will be calling Mr Netanyahu to try to tell him not to hit back.
Iran wants an end to Israeli strikes against its proxy, Hezbollah, as a precondition for any peace deal with the US. But Mr Trump is already saying he won't be pushing it.
The situation in Lebanon is of grave concern, with the humanitarian crisis it's fuelled continuing to threaten lives across the financially stricken country. In the debate over Lebanon being a bargaining chip in a broader game of negotiations, that personal toll has often been wrongfully relegated to lesser prominence.
Aside from that, it's also fuelling a feverish political debate in Israel as the country's politicians jostle ahead of an election due by October.
The renewed ceasefire, announced by the US, Israeli and Lebanese governments last week, demanded that Hezbollah stop attacking Israel. But it was almost doomed to fail given the conduct of the group, considered a terrorist organisation in many countries, including Australia, to this point.
That mix of factors makes Lebanon a tinderbox, and it could blow — even more dramatically and dangerously than it just has.
Remember back in March and April, when the US president and his top brass kept saying that the war in Iran would be a quick operation?
"We could say four weeks, but it could be six, it could be eight, it could be three. Ultimately, we set the pace and the tempo," US Secretary of Defense (or War, as the Trump administration calls the role) Pete Hegseth said in the first week of March.
It's now the end of day 100 of the war. While the situation is very different to what was experienced in those early days, with seemingly relentless barrages of missiles and drones replaced by intermittent flurries of strikes and counterstrikes, the war is still ongoing.
Even the definitions in this war are shifting. Mr Trump was asked late last week what he saw a ceasefire as being, following missile and drone attacks on countries such as Kuwait and Bahrain. "In that part of the world, ceasefire is when you're shooting in a more moderate manner," he quipped.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that Mr Trump had told aides he wouldn't return to all-out war unless US troops were killed in that "moderate" fighting.
While there is little doubt in the military might of the United States, the ability of the oppressive Iranian regime to withstand the pressure from Washington is shining through. Its power, often exercised through brutal crackdowns on dissent within its own population, is now being directed at the negotiations on a deal to end the war with the United States, through mediators Pakistan.
The demands it is making, such as the unfreezing of Iranian assets, are being rebuffed by Mr Trump. On Sunday, before Iran's attacks on Israel, the US president told American network NBC that unfreezing assets would only be considered after an agreement. "If they behave, if they do a good job, we start talking," he said.
One hundred days is the latest milestone to pass without a deal. Mr Trump's trip to China was the first, with suggestions he wanted it all wrapped up before heading to Beijing.
Next is the start of the FIFA men's World Cup, co-hosted by the US, this week. Iran is one of the teams competing, with their opening match on June 16 against our Kiwi cousins.
Perhaps Mr Trump is learning that starting a war is much easier than finishing it, despite his repeated insistence on being the world's greatest peacemaker.
Thanks for joining me. I'll see you at the same time next week.
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Foreign Affairs
Iran, Islamic Republic Of
Israel
Lebanon
United States
Unrest, Conflict and War
World Politics
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Analysis by Jake Evans
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