PUBLISHED : 24 Jun 2026 at 05:01
NEWSPAPER SECTION: Oped
WRITER: John J. Metzler
If is a big and most consequential word in the English language. The word connotes wishes, conditionality, and often aspirations. If also is one of the shortest words holding a very long explanatory meaning which embodies hope but just as easily signals fatalism.
If, for example, the Islamic Republic of Iran were to adhere to and honour the current Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the United States, there may be a mutually beneficial peace settlement for the US, Israel, and its Arab Gulf allies.
If the accord succeeds, Iran would gain too for its own beleaguered population.
If the Islamic regime were to truly renounce nuclear weapons ambitions and not plan any future tricks to change their status, then Tehran may have finally resolved the central issue and core concern confronting the world.
Yet, given media misperceptions, the MoU is being presented as a Memorandum of Misunderstanding. But through their well-honed games of Bazaar negotiations, encompassing the mysteries of millennia of haggling, this still-standing radical regime remains a merchant of mendacity. Recall a few things the mainstream media has totally missed. An MoU, while significant, remains a signed non-binding document of intent. But it doesn’t hold the legality of a treaty. It’s about moving to the next step “in good faith”, which is indeed a stretch of credulity with the Islamic Republic. But process, per se, is not necessarily a result.
So let’s view the 14-point MoU, opening a 60-day negotiation period, presumably reaching a formal deal, skirting the precipice of risk and reward. If Tehran truly does hold to the agreement, in paragraph #8, “Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons,” that’s an epic American win. Paragraphs #4 and #5 call for ending the US naval blockade and for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping through these international waters without harassment or toll.
Significantly, the MoU does not mention Tehran’s deadly missile forces, which threaten Israel and Gulf States, nor Iran’s support for proxy terrorists such as Hezbollah and Hamas. Let’s face it, the MoU is as much about gasoline prices at the pump across America as it is about geopolitical solutions for the Middle East and the stressed global economy. With the Congressional Midterm elections looming in November, the Trump administration cannot afford for American gas prices to stay at Biden-era levels, the ensuing knock-on effects of inflation, or risk a tipping point into global recession. Only if the final “deal” gets approval from the UN Security Council is it official. Meanwhile, the nonsense being peddled that the US lost the war to Islamic Iran is beyond ludicrous. If one assesses the grim Iranian economy since February, and the state of infrastructure, the military and sees the extensive bomb damage to facilities throughout the Islamic Republic, it presents an absurd cartoon fantasy that Iran somehow won the war.
Yet since the Mullah regime is still standing despite the military battering, we then see an unfinished job. Allowing the Islamic Republic to survive in its weakened form sets the stage for rebuilding through renewed petroleum revenues and investments as the end of economic sanctions looms after 60 days. That’s if the Tehran government is prudent. But Tehran’s parallel Revolutionary Guard regime wants conflict with the West and the Gulf Arabs, so brace for more trouble.
“Dealing with a regime that murdered 40,000 Iranians in January is not only morally wrong but strategically misguided,” stated Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, a leader in the Iranian civilian opposition. “Any deal with this regime will ultimately fail. It can never be trusted,” he told The Times of London.
During the G-7 Summit in Evian, France, the European allies were near-giddy over the MoU. Why? They savour the fool’s gold of renewed trade and commerce with an unsanctioned Iran.
Nonetheless, Israel simply cannot coexist with Hezbollah in Lebanon, nor can the Lebanese government in Beirut, which uncomfortably hosts these armed Iranian proxies. The MoU clearly states in the first paragraph, “ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon”.
Viewing the MoU, Ronald Reagan’s advice still holds: “Trust but Verify.” If Iran doesn’t comply and characteristically cheats in the first 60 days or follow-up, President Donald Trump has been crystal clear that the US military forces will reply with force and fury. The region stands at an eerie pause. Was there a clear winner? Hardly, but there are so many losers.
John J Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defence issues. He is the author of ‘Divided Dynamism: The Diplomacy of Separated Nations; Germany, Korea, China’.
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