It's still likely Cyclone Vaianu will hit the country this weekend, meteorologists say as they turns their eyes to modelling to predict the path of the storm.
The storm, if it arrives, would deliver strong winds, heavy rain and hazardous coastal conditions, MetService meteorologist John Law told Morning Report on Thursday.
It might first hit Northland late on Saturday, but Sunday remained the key day. It was a category 2 storm with winds around 100km/h at its centre as of Thursday morning.
Regions that have already seen a lot of wet weather this year might be in the firing line again.
"But by the time it reaches us in New Zealand it will still be a very deep very active area of low pressure and it's not just the windy weather but also that low pressure itself will help give a bit of a boost to the seas as well, just adding to those coastal conditions," Law said.
Wind gusts are expected to exceed 110km/h, especially in the Kaimai Range and along the hills and ranges in the east.
"There's plenty happening over the next few days. It's a very fast moving system clearing through us as we head through Sunday-Monday."
The cyclone is forecast to move quickly across the country during Sunday and Monday, spreading rain and strong winds onto the top of the South Island and the Chatham Islands before clearing to the south east.
MetService says that as the forecast becomes clearer, it is likely that there will be severe weather warnings for both severe gales and heavy rain for the regions that are affected by Cyclone Vaianu.
On Thursday the entire North Island was under yellow level weather watches for wind and heavy rain, at this stage most of them are set to come into effect late on Saturday or early Sunday.
The MetService has put the entire North Island under a strong wind watch for Sunday.
"I believe this is the first time that we have done this," forecaster Brian Mercer told RNZ.
"And that is just to reflect the fact that this is a very significant storm," he said.
"Model runs come in two or three times a day depending on which model it is, and as we get a little bit closer we're going to be looking at those and we will certainly be or very likely be issuing warnings, very likely orange warnings and potential red warnings," Mercer said.
"However, those are discussions that we have to have as we see the progress of the cyclone and as we have discussions with Civil Defence and local authorities in the relevant areas."
The uncertainty meant it was also too early to say when the existing warnings would be upgraded.
"So people need to prepare, they need to make certain that the gutters are clear, they need to make certain that, for example, trampolines and so on are not in a situation where they could fly away, they need to do all the normal things they do when there is a storm approaching," Mercer said.
"And it is a very high impact event, and so we have taken this step of actually issuing this initial phase earlier than we normally would and for a larger area."
Trees downed in Fiji by Cyclone Vaianu.
Facebook / Fiji Roads Authority
Mercer said expert forecasters would be going over the new models as they rolled in to see how they had changed from earlier ones.
They would also be tracking the cyclone's actual movements to see how it compared to tracking shown in modelling, he said.
"And so as we see the later models come in, we'll see how they are developing with that," he said.
"And from there, they are going to have discussions with regional councils, with Civil Defence, and issue further warnings with more details.
"We will issue the warnings when we have sufficient certainty that we're not going to be crying wolves."
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon.
RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said on Wednesday that agencies were on "full notice" over the system and it was important people did everything they could to prepare.
Acting Emergency Management Minister Chris Penk told RNZ a nervous watch was being kept on the cyclone.
He said preparations were being made for a worst case scenario, which included the Defence Force beginning preparations for possible deployments.
"The Defence Force are making plans to respond in the areas that they may need to respond," Penk said.
"Of course, the obvious challenge is that we don't know where and when the situation would arise, we can probably narrow down as the weather system gets closer to New Zealand what kind of timing might be at play, but the benefit of the Defence Force involvement would be that through its air assets in particular," he added.
Penk said MetService, NEMA and Civil Defence Emergency Management Groups, the New Zealand Defence Force, Police and Fire and Emergency New Zealand are closely monitoring Cyclone Vaianu, and NEMA stood ready to coordinate support if needed.
Acting Emergency Management Minister Chris Penk.
RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
When he spoke with RNZ, Anaru Cook south of Kaitāia was on his roof strapping it down.
It had been two weeks since the last severe storm battered the top of the country.
That storm sent floodwaters through Cook's property as he was trying to rescue his wife's lifetime collection of weaving.
"And now to get this news that a cyclone is coming through, I'm just looking around shaking my head, going 'is this our future?'," he said.
"I'm not about to lose this house, we just saved it from a flood, the storm is not going to take this house, I'm adamant in that."
A flood-damaged van and debris piled up at the Cooks’ property by the 26 March storm.
Supplied
Northland Civil Defence chairperson Colin Kitchen said recurring storms were taking their toll on residents across the region.
"People are feeling it up here, we had a beautiful summer, and then next thing 'bang' and we got hit, and hit again, and it looks like it's going to come again so people are getting a little anxious and exhausted, and with that going on and also this bloody cost of living crisis, all that sort of thing, it does affect our people out there."
Lines company Top Energy was resting crews ahead of the cyclone, and making sure enough are on hand for when it arrives.
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