Linda and I spent today at Strathmere. Eleven to five, beach chairs, a walk down the sand, and watched a father and daughter haul in a 30-pound drum fish that had the whole stretch of beach watching. Perfect late spring day — or really, the first real day of Jersey summer.
The water started cool, the way it always does this early in the season. But by the afternoon it had noticeably warmed up. I checked when I got home. The current ocean temperature at Strathmere is running 64 to 68 degrees. That felt about right for how the day went — brisk in the morning, genuinely comfortable by the time the sun was high. Especially the surface water. That HAD to be in the 70's. Was certainly colder toward the bottom.
Here's the thing. That's warmer than it should be. According to NOAA's coastal water temperature data, this is 4 to 6 degrees above the historical average for mid-June at the Jersey Shore. For comparison, last summer the water off Sandy Hook hit over 75 degrees in June — more than five degrees above the monthly average of 69.8.
For a swimmer, that's nothing but good news. Warmer water earlier in the season means more comfortable beach days sooner, and that matters to anyone who has ever stood at the edge of the surf in late May talking themselves into going in.
But there's a second half to this story, and it's worth knowing before hurricane season gets going in earnest.
This year's outlook for New Jersey is actually good. NOAA's prediction models are calling for a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2026, and Colorado State University researchers expect El Niño conditions — which tend to suppress hurricane development in the Atlantic Basin — to be a factor again this year. As of early June, the Atlantic Basin had zero tropical activity while the Pacific had already produced three tropical storms.
That's the kind of forecast that lets you relax a little heading into summer.
Here's the catch. The same researchers note that warmer-than-average water temperatures this summer could be the genesis for tropical storms forming in the Atlantic from August through October — which is exactly the warmth I felt in the water at Strathmere today. Warm ocean water is fuel. It's the difference between a tropical system that fizzles out over cooler water and one that undergoes what AccuWeather forecasters have called "explosive development" as it tracks north.
This is a well-established dynamic. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution scientist Glen Gawarkiewicz has explained in past seasons that a warmer ocean simply provides more fuel for storms — even in years when El Niño would normally suggest things stay quiet. The two forces are pulling in opposite directions, and which one wins out by September is the question nobody can answer in June.
Nothing changes about today. Go to the beach. The water feels great and it's going to keep feeling great, probably earlier into the fall than usual too — warmer water in June often means warmer water lingering into September and October as well.
But it's worth filing away. New Jersey caught a real break with the early-season forecast suppressing overall storm activity. The thing to watch as we move into late summer is whether that warm water in the Atlantic — the same water that made today such a good day at Strathmere — ends up being the wildcard that determines whether a storm that forms off Africa in September arrives off our coast as a fizzle or as something that demands real attention.
For now, the water's great. Go enjoy it. Just keep an eye on the tropics come August.
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