The start of the El Niño climate pattern has officially been declared by federal forecasters, and signs are that it could be a “very strong” and very costly one.
Indeed, El Niño, a natural warming of Pacific Ocean water, can have a devastating impact on the world economy – to the tune of trillions of dollars around the globe – and the current pattern is likely to follow suit.
For example, the 1982-83 El Niño led to $4.1 trillion in global income losses, while the 1997-98 El Niño cost about $5.7 trillion, a 2023 study suggested.
“The current forecasts imply this could be the costliest El Niño on record,” said Justin Mankin, a Dartmouth geography associate professor who studies El Niño’s economic impacts.
El Niño tends to slow down global economic growth and cause trillions in losses, primarily due to the fact that it triggers disruptive weather patterns that impact agriculture, infrastructure, and supply chains.
In the years it forms, El Niño triggers wide-ranging changes in weather and climate patterns that result in a potpourri of global disasters, including devastating floods, crop-killing droughts, plummeting fish populations and an uptick in tropical diseases worldwide, experts say.
“El Niño is a major driver of global weather and climate patterns,” said World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, in a recent statement. “The footprint of an El Niño travels far beyond its origins in the Pacific Ocean, impacting agriculture, energy supplies, trade, water resources, supply chains, and livelihoods across entire regions.”
It’s important to recognize that the trillions in losses are not mainly from immediate disaster damage. Mankin found in his research that these events are a persistent drag on economic growth after they occur.
The hazards from El Niño, like droughts, floods, heat waves, and wildfires, trigger immediate damages, but the lasting costs come from what they do to the foundations of growth, such as:
“We know from observations that El Niños can cost the global economy trillions of dollars in damages and lost productivity,” Mankin told USA TODAY. “These costs accrue over years and disproportionately impact countries whose weather and climate is most tied to El Niño.”
“We know that past El Niños, like the 1997-98, cost the economy over $7 trillion by 2003.”
Mankin said that the current El Niño will cost trillions of dollars globally, with more than $1.8 trillion of that in the U.S. alone by 2032.
Because we don’t know precisely how strong this El Niño is going to become, he said, we don’t know how costly it will be.
“In absolute dollar terms, yes, the current forecasts imply this could be the costliest El Niño on record,” Mankin said. “The current forecasts have El Niño strengthening to over 2 degrees C (3.8 degrees F), which is a very strong event if it pans out.”
At the same time, he said the event is impacting a larger global economy than the last El Niño, so there is more to be damaged. Both of these factors are why the 1997-98 event cost more than 1982-83 one. But while a stronger event raises the odds and probable scale of impact, the true total won’t be known for years because the losses compound over time.
“In terms of its relative impact (for instance, as a percent of the current global economy), it will really depend on how strong the event ends up being.”
There is some good news. Some areas actually see an agricultural boost from El Niño: “Some agricultural regions (eastern Brazil, Uruguay, Italy, Romania, and the Caspian Sea region) could see improved crop yields due to warmer temperatures and increased rainfall,” according to van Gendt. “Historically, soybean crop yields have improved during El Niño events.”
And experts say the negative effects of El Niño won’t show up immediately. Van Gendt explains: “It usually takes several months for crop disruptions to translate into higher retail food prices, but consumers may experience earlier cost increases or combined cost increases due to fertilizer shortages. The World Economic Forum predicts that current fertilizer shortages will take six months to a year to affect food supply.”
El Niño is a natural climate pattern where seawater in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is warmer than average. El Niño and its counterpart, La Niña, can influence storms and weather patterns around the world, including hurricanes.
El Niños occur on average about every three to five years and vary in strength, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Here in the United States, El Niños typically result in wetter, warmer winters for the West Coast and a milder hurricane season for the Atlantic seaboard.
Contributing: Reuters
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, with a focus on weather and climate.
Leave a Reply