Her strongest supporters don’t care that her positions often don’t make sense, but first-time One Nation voters could swing back if the party faced more scrutiny
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Angus Taylor was in Perth on Friday, demonstrating fairly competently why voters are abandoning the Liberals and Nationals for One Nation.
In a week when Newspoll put Pauline Hanson’s party ahead of the Coalition and Labor for the first time, on Friday the opposition leader was unable to name a single seat in electorally sensitive Western Australia.
Asked by reporters nine times where the Liberals and Nationals wanted to make up ground against Labor, and even what seat he was standing in at that moment, Taylor couldn’t say.
If it can maintain its extraordinary surge in support all the way to the next election, One Nation looks likely to win a swag of regional and outer suburban seats, dinting support for both major parties. Still more than 18 months away, the poll could see Taylor’s opposition go backwards on its dire result last year and hand Hanson a leading role after 30 years at the margins of Australian politics.
So what exactly is going on, and why is a leader with so little to offer cutting through in such a big way?
Both parties deserve blame.
Taylor appears to be going backwards on the position of Sussan Ley, despite weeks of attacking Labor over its planned tax increases in parliament and the media.
Hanson and her backers, including strategist James Ashby, have more effectively tapped into growing anger at Labor’s budget proposals and broad dissatisfaction with Anthony Albanese over broken promises. One Nation claimed to have fundraised $3m in just a few days this week, part of a “Fire the Liar” campaign that went viral like gastro on a cruise ship.
Frustrated at how hard it is to make ends meet, let alone get ahead, many voters want to give the middle finger to the political system, and see their anger mirrored in Hanson’s singular brand of politics. Many apparently don’t care that One Nation’s policies are mostly policy-light vibe statements. These voters might be tough for the major parties to win back with the usual tit-for-tat political arguments and character attacks.
Despite Albanese’s supremacy in the parliament, the experience of leaders including Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison demonstrates that once voters think you’re full of it, winning back credibility can be impossible. After making so much of Morrison’s lies in opposition, Labor has put itself in a difficult position, especially as it takes on reform fights and faces growing inflation and unemployment.
But while Taylor’s challenge from Hanson is urgent and existential, Albanese might have more time on his side. Labor’s best case scenario would see the budget through parliament before the July winter break, giving the government still more than a year to rebuild support in the polls. In a rough playbook offered privately by some Labor MPs this week, the government could then turn to a political attack against Hanson and Taylor in the months immediately ahead of the election, due in 2028.
Labor and the Coalition would do well to highlight Hanson’s hypocrisy more. Her strongest supporters don’t care that her positions often doesn’t make sense, but voters moving over to One Nation for the first time could swing back, with more information and scrutiny.
Hanson has one of the great glass jaws of Australian politics. She dismissed misogynistic sloganeering against the Victorian premier, Jacinta Allan, this week, telling her to “suck it up, sweetheart”, only to turn around and complain, without evidence, that she’d been subjected to the same sexist treatment by Nationals leader Tim Fischer as far back as the 1990s. Fischer’s widow, Judy Brewer, used a statement to The Australian on Friday to demand Hanson provide proof her husband ever called Hanson a “witch” or suggested she be burned at the stake.
Hanson’s race-baiting and punching down on migrants, Indigenous Australians and young people doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. Even One Nation’s newly elected lower house MP David Farley pointed out this week overseas-born workers do critical work in regional communities and slashing immigration at the rate Hanson proposes will hurt agriculture, aged care and transport.
There are signs the broader labour movement is already starting to think about how to grapple with the challenge of Hanson, once described by conservative campaign guru Lynton Crosby as “the accidental tourist of Australian politics”.
Guardian Australia reported on Friday that pollster and former Labor strategist Kos Samaras is dividing Hanson’s support among red and blue One Nation voters. Blue supporters moving away from the Liberals and Nationals might stick with Hanson longer term, while red voters, the working-class people moving over from Labor, could be won back once Hanson’s positions on workers’ pay and conditions are properly explained.
To this end, Sally McManus, the ACTU secretary, has already name-checked Hanson, accusing her and the supposedly populist party of siding with bosses and big business after minimum wage earners got a much-needed break from the Fair Work Commission this month.
McManus also pointed out that Hanson’s closest backer is Gina Rinehart. Hanson admitted on Friday the mining billionaire is contributing policy ideas to One Nation, describing her support as “very beneficial” to the party. One Nation’s defence policy, calling for a spend of 5% of GDP, identically matches Rinehart’s own stated position. Hanson gets her back up when questions are raised about Rinehart’s bankrolling of One Nation’s political operation, even as she flies around the country in a $1.5m plane given to her by the Hancock Prospecting boss.
As Liberal Andrew Hastie has pointed out, Hanson’s strong support for Donald Trump could turn between now and the election, too. Facing tough congressional elections in November, Trump’s tin ear on inflation and the plight of households is getting worse, even as he builds a gilded White House ballroom and prolongs war in the Middle East.
One Nation’s surge in support should not be dismissed, but highlighting Hanson’s hypocrisy and scant policy offerings should be the first step to bring her back down to earth.
Tom McIlroy is Guardian Australia’s political editor
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