The race to be the next mayor of Los Angeles is a study in contrasts. Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass is seeking re-election despite widespread unhappiness with her performance. Reality show veteran Spencer Pratt, the only viable Republican in the race, has gained traction with his viral advertising campaign and commonsense solutions to everyday problems. L.A. City Councilmember Nithya Raman was initially a favorite. But once voters grew more familiar with her, she fell back to the pack.
The most recent polls show what amounts to a statistical tie between the top three candidates, making today’s outcome a legitimate question.
By the end of the day, the race for mayor will either be decided with one candidate reaching a majority, making a November runoff unnecessary (unlikely), or the top two candidates will prepare to square off on Election Day in five months.
Prediction markets offer opportunities for users to weigh in on this highly competitive and surprisingly unpredictable race.
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Market volume is at about $40 million and rising.
Currently, Mayor Bass is heavily favored by those taking part, with a percentage in the mid-60s. One-quarter of users are backing the upstart Pratt. Raman is down in the 10-12% range.
It is also possible to speculate on the percentages that each candidate ultimately receives. For example, around 30% each think Bass will garner 25-30% of the vote or 30-35% of the vote. About 80% think Pratt will get at least 25%.
For those who want to take part, the Kalshi promo code is available, offering a $10 Sign-Up Bonus for new users once $10 in trades have been completed.
The market rules are for the eventual winner of the mayoral election, so unless one candidate gets more than 50% in the primary, the resolution will not be known until November. If the selected candidate is elected mayor in 2026, the market will resolve to Yes. The City of Los Angeles will verify the outcome.
Get a detailed breakdown of the election betting odds for the LA Mayoral primary below.
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Despite the tight polls, Bass is widely expected to win the primary. Presumably, given the city’s demographics, she will win re-election.
However, Pratt was not expected to get this far when he announced his candidacy and endured widespread mockery because of his reality show past. Running as a Republican certainly didn’t help his prospects either. But he has run a near-flawless campaign and put himself in the “maybe he could” conversation to win.
That he’s jumped well ahead of Raman is a shock in and of itself. Voters who have had enough of extreme progressive policies would undoubtedly like something different. And Pratt fills the bill there. The question is whether he can build enough of a coalition with moderate Democrats to bring him over the finish line. He’s hard to pigeonhole, so perhaps a campaign run on fixing problems over straight ideology can succeed.
There is also the possibility that voters who are still unsure could vote for Pratt so they can hear more from him in the coming months and make their decision in November. In a one-on-one race, Pratt could absolutely win if he continues his master class in advertising and clearly expresses himself in interviews. His profile will only increase as the general election approaches.
For Raman, several factors have contributed to her slide from frontrunner to probable. It’s a classic case of familiarity breeding contempt. The more L.A. residents heard from her, the more they realized they didn’t like her or her policies. Selling herself as a Democratic Socialist in the vein of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani is fine. But she has not shown the charisma nor created the coalition that Mamdani did on his way to victory.
Given the challenges that residents of Los Angeles face with homelessness, crime, illegal immigration, a smothering bureaucracy, and the ever-present threat of wildfires, electing someone who is further to the left than Bass is unpalatable. This has not only opened the door for Bass’ re-election, but for Pratt to get into the November runoff.
The easy pick here is to go with Bass. Hovering at around 65% in the markets gives users the chance to profit with a safe pick.
Those who want to take a bigger risk for a more lucrative reward can go with Pratt. If he manages to get into the runoff, perhaps he can pull it off as an outsider candidate who isn’t spouting the same rhetoric and promising to stick to the failed policies that have been problematic in L.A. for far too long.
Read more: Prediction Markets
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