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IOWA, USA — A new poll conducted just days before the Iowa primary election indicates the race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination may end in an upset.
JMC Analytics and Polling conducted the poll May 27 and 28, asking a random sample of registered Republican voters about the statewide primary election.
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The poll was conducted via phone call and text, and yielded 550 respondents, with a +/- 4.18% margin of error.
Here are some key takeaways from the poll.
Read a summary of the poll here and see the full results here.
While Congressman Randy Feenstra has had the highest name recognition in the gubernatorial race, the poll indicates his lead has evaporated over time.
The poll puts Zach Lahn ahead of Feenstra in the gubernatorial primary, with Lahn receiving 24% of the vote and Feenstra trailing at 22%. Former state administrator Adam Steen sits in third place with 15%, while Brad Sherman and Eddie Andrews polled at 8% and 4%, respectively.
27% of voters were still undecided at the time of the poll. Among those undecided voters, 11% said they were leaning towards Lahn, while 7% lean towards Feenstra.
Results show Lahn’s base is largely Evangelical conservatives, and he has a narrow lead among “Trump/MAGA Republicans.” Self-declared “Establishment Republicans” favored Feenstra over Lahn, 32-22%.
Lahn also boasted higher approval ratings in the poll, with his overall approval sitting at 48-16% favorable/unfavorable. In comparison, Feenstra’s approval/disapproval is 41-38%.
If polling matches up with actual voter behavior on Tuesday, it’s likely Iowans will have to wait to learn who the GOP nominee is. Under Iowa Code, candidates must clear a 35% threshold to win the primary. If no candidate receives 35% of the vote, party activists will decide the winner at a Republican convention.
JMC Analytics and Consulting also asked likely Republican voters who they would support in the Republican U.S. Senate primary. Results indicate Ashley Hinson is “well ahead,” with a 58-19% lead over challenger Jim Carlin.
When factoring in undecided “leaners,” the poll shows Hinson’s lead widens to 61-22%.
Polling reveals Hinson dominates across all segments of the Republican primary electorate, leading the pollsters to call the Senate race “essentially settled.”
30% of those polled indicated inflation and the cost of living are the most important issues facing our country today. Other top issues included border security (19%) and taxes and government spending (15%).
Respondents also indicated overwhelming support for the joint strike on Iran earlier this year. 52% of those polled strongly favored the strike, with another 22% somewhat favoring the strike.
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